Puxatawney Phil

For the 3rd consecutive yr the groundhog Puxatawney Phil discovered his shadow and directed backwards to his hole for 6 additional calendar weeks of the winter season. The question is if the meteorologist Puxatawney Phil could tell people something about the economic system.

The record of Puxatawney Phil for an economic predictor is not a great deal worse than a few professionals.

CNN stated that Puxatawney Phil does not hold a very good record as a weather forecaster. He has been right for only about thirty-nine percent of time. During the last two years, he’s had more success as an economic forecaster predicting turning points.

During 2008, 6 weeks to the time the groundhog viewed his own shadow, Bear Stearns broke, indicating an afresh stage to the credit crisis and the 1st signals of the big scare that sent off the economic system into a spin near the end of the year. Within 2009, Puxatawney Phil beheld his own shadow once again and no one could find fault in him for maneuvering back to the hole. The stock exchange was all the same coming down, GDP was collapsing and political leaders were arguing about stimulant programs and bank savings.

Therefore does Puxatawney Phil witnessing his own shadow imply that we will bear an additional landmark for the economic system 6 weeks later? The answer is believably no. As we aforementioned in the previous yr, all this is entirely a co-occurrence.

Only the moral continues to be similar. It is significant to keep in mind that a great deal could alter in the economic system in 6 weeks.